It hardly seems real that after all this time the Avatar sequel is imminent. Thirteen years in the making and now Avatar: The Way Of Water is just over 2 months away. There is a staggering lack of buzz and very limited publicity so far. No doubt that will all change soon.

Avatar

So what does this mean for box office? Will the lack of buzz and general apathy towards the original movie impact the take? Apparently not. Variety has reported that the sequel is on track to generate around $650 million at the domestic box-office. The same analytics experts, Cinelytic, say the movie will earn another $425 million and $214 million from video-on-demand and streaming platforms, respectively.

This is down on the years big performer Top Gun: Maverick which pulled in $700 million and also down on the 2009 original which made $772 million.

This analysis does not include overseas box office, and that is where the big money is for Avatar as a franchise. The majority of the $2.79 billion record breaking haul was made outside the US and that is where the sequel’s performance will really be judged.

The blurb for Avatar: The Way Of Water says:

“Set 2167 more than a decade after the events of the first film, Avatar: The Way of Water begins to tell the story of the Sully family, the trouble that follows them, the lengths they go to keep each other safe, the battles they fight to stay alive, and the tragedies they endure.”

One thing in the its favor is the December release, when Black Adam and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will have already been and gone. Then there is nothing to challenge it until Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania comes out two months later. This may mean it picks up repeat business through lack of choice.

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